"David Peterson has been pretty terrible this year, with peripherals well below his shiny 3.3 ERA. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals, quite the opposite actually, so I'm not really sure why the Mets are such huge favorites. Yes, Joey Estes isn't good, but he isn't that far behind Peterson, and the offenses here are quite co... Read more

"Davis Daniel has actually been kind of good for the Angels. Ugly ERA for sure, but his peripherals are all solid and that's despite a huge BABIP of .351. It was high in Triple-A too, so maybe he's just a high BABIP guy, but it shouldn't be this high. And Bowden Francis looks replacement level, so I'm liking the Angels' chances here."

"A battle of two decent lefties, and lefties have the Yankees kryptonite all year. Not that they are terrible against them, but they're much weaker than when they face right-handed pitching. Texas' lineup has started to come to life a bit, so I can't quite get them to this big of underdogs. "

"Buying a dip here, as I'm not completely convinced Taj Bradley has put it all together yet. He has sterling peripherals for the most part, but the stuff models and his lukewarm CSW% give me some pause. Fedde is solid, and the Cardinals have the better offense, defense, and bullpen, so I think -110 is a bit too low with home field. Half unit play."Read more

"I bet Astros -115. This is mostly about fading Tyler Mahle. He was one of my guys prior to his injury and has definitely made me some dough, but I'm pretty sure we're going to see 5 innings of the Texas bullpen here, which I don't anticipate going all that well."

"I bet Diamondbacks -174. Zac Gallen always seems to not get the market respect he deserves for some reason. And while Luis Ortiz is enjoying a nice season, most of it has come in relief, and he still has some pretty weak peripherals. I thought Arizona should have been more like -200 here."

"I bet Orioles -120. While Texas performs decently against the cutter, it's not enough to worry me in this matchup as far as Corbin Burnes is concerned. He's been fabulous, and the Orioles have the better lineup and bullpen to boot. I like them up to -130 here. "

"Half unit punt for me here, as I'm a little less confident in this game. I seem to be too low on the Mookie-less Dodgers, and I'm not that familiar with this call-up for the Dbacks, but Cristian Mena doesn't look terrible. Gavin Stone appears to be pitching miles above his talent level, though, so I feel like there's a bit of value on the Snakes."Read more

"I bet Giants -115. I like the Giants quite a bit here, but the market is going the other way. Landon Knack has a good ERA but poor projections thanks to his below-average Triple-A performance, so I expect he'll fall off. And Logan Webb is still dominant, especially at home. I feel like I've said this about 30 times in the past two weeks, but missi... Read more

"I bet Nationals -116. Adam Mazur has been terrible in the majors and just doesn't look like a big-league arm based on that plus his Triple A performance. And the Padres offense is in some trouble here, I think, based on the fact that they haven't been great against lefties and are missing their top hitter, Fernando Tatis Jr. And Mackenzie Gore is ... Read more

"I bet Cubs +110. Justin Steele as an underdog against Spencer Howard was objectively crazy, but the market has moved swiftly to rectify this. DK has the last -110 on the board, which I still think is plenty bettable, but I'd go up to -120 here. The Giants aren't very strong against cutters, and Steele has recovered after a brief slump. I don't tru... Read more

"I bet Cubs -142. Bought the dip here after some overnight Mets steam moved the line. Going to continue to buy in on Shota Imanaga until the market admits he's an elite performer, apparently. I know the Mets offense has been on fire, but Jose Quintana stinks and I trust Imanaga. Past -150, I wouldn't play it anymore though."

"I bet A's +135. Mitch Spence keeps getting guys out, and based on his minor league track record, this looks repeatable. The stuff metrics think he's solid too. Seth Lugo, on the other hand, looks the same as ever, nowhere close to deserving his tiny ERA. If the market is giving him credit, I'm happy to fade at inflated prices."

"I bet Rockies +148. The Dodgers are working with a threadbare lineup at this point beyond Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. Will Smith is the only other guy you're excited to run out there every day, with Mookie Betts now joining Max Muncy on the sidelines. And all of James Paxton's ERA estimators and peripherals are saying he's replacement level... Read more

"I bet Giants -134. Spencer Howard isn't the worst, and he won't be pushed deep, so he should have plenty of support from a solid pen. I actually don't think he's any worse than Tyler Anderson, though Anderson has enjoyed much better fortune this year. And the Angels can't hit right-handed pitching at all. They also have bottom-of-the-barrel pen an... Read more

"I bet Mets -189. This one is also out of the value territory now, but I still don't hate adding it to a parlay or taking an alt line. Bottom line here is just that Roddery Munoz doesn't belong on an MLB mound. It's also a nice matchup for Luis Severino, who gets a ton of grounders thanks to adding a sinker to his pitch mix. Nobody hits more ground... Read more

"I bet Pirates -158. What a line this was. Paul Skenes has been off the charts so far, pitching so well that even the strong initial projection I gave him looks like it will be short of his true talent. He's pitching like prime Jacob deGrom essentially, and that means this number against a bad Giants offense with a bad pitcher is well short of wher... Read more

"I bet A's -130. After some initial action on the other side, the A's got slammed out of value territory for me as well. Mitch Spence looks like he might be a halfway decent pitcher, with projections around a 4.5 ERA. He was good for NYY in the minors last year and has been solid for the A's this year as a reliever. Add that pitching advantage to a... Read more

"I fired the Rays in this same spot last week on the road, and I don't see any reason to change my opinion. I still rate Zack Littell stronger than Cooper Criswell by a good amount, and I actually like the Rays lineup more now than I did last week. Jonny Deluca replacing Jose Siri seems to be quite a plus, and Brandon Lowe returned from injury yest... Read more

"The Cardinals took some money this morning, so I'm going to fade the steam here. Yes, Sonny Gray has been fantastic, but we still have a long career worth of data that tells us he's more very good than elite. I don't have him THAT far ahead of Kremer, and with Baltimore having a much, much better offense, I had them favored in this spot."

"I bet Rangers -154. Apparently I'm lower than the market on Carlos Carrasco. I'm going to keep fading until something gives. Either Carrasco starts pitching better, or the market starts pricing him as replacement-level. The Cleveland offense has crashed as well, losing Steven Kwan and just generally regressing after a hot start. I believe this is ... Read more

"I bet Cubs +124. I'm just going to keep pounding Shota Imanaga until the market adjusts, I suppose. He's getting a ton of mileage out of chases, and the Braves will chase plenty. Atlanta's lineup should also be without Austin Riley, who incurred most likely a minor injury on Sunday. And I still don't believe in this Reynaldo Lopez resurgence. He s... Read more

"I bet White Sox +100. There were some better numbers last night, but some books had the line taken down, so I waited until this morning to pull the trigger on the Sox in case a pitching change was happening. It looks like Garrett Crochet is going to go, though, and I'm happy to continue backing him and his sparkling peripheral numbers. With his ve... Read more

"Bought the dip on the Mariners. It's possible I'm overrating this offense, as I seem to be on the Ms quite often. But in this spot, they should be able to score a few runs on Paddack, who is as average as they come. George Kirby is near elite, so I'm having a tough time getting the Mariners down to even money here against the Twins. I'm still not ... Read more

"I bet Marlins +265. Not an exciting play fading the red-hot Dodgers, but I do think the Marlins were a bit underpriced with a good pitcher on the mound in Edward Cabrera. I'm a little worried that the Dodgers' patience will play up here, but Cabrera has been better at avoiding the free passes. With FStr% and Zone% both up, it looks legitimate. Jak... Read more

"Normally, I never bet F5 lines, believing you're just paying juice to avoid bullpen variance that should even out, but I'll make an exception for this one. I wouldn't do it if Justin Steele were healthy, but I only expect 5 innings from him, which means we're getting almost half a baseball game worth of the Cubs pen, which has been one of baseball... Read more

"I bet Jays -168. This was an off-market number at FanDuel last night and it has been picked off. I don't think there's any value left here. My reasoning was mostly that Yusei Kikuchi looks tremendous after reintroducing his curveball, the Nationals stink at hitting lefties, while Toronto's the opposite. My only fear here is they've been putrid aga... Read more

"I bet Giants -102. Kyle Harrison is a pitcher I've generally been fading, but I'm not sure why the market has any confidence in Josh Winckowski here. He has terrible splits as a starter with ERA estimators near replacement level, and a K-BB% around 5 definitely backs that up. Boston's offense has been a bit weaker against lefties, too. The early m... Read more

"I bet Dodgers -130. I think Jordan Montgomery is probably getting too much credit in the market. Yes, he's a good pitcher, but he isn't an ace, and he seems to be getting priced like one. That's especially odd right now, when he's missing velocity, he's actually more vulnerable as he hasn't yet built up since he signed late in the offseason. Facin... Read more

"I bet Mariners +114. Fading the Braves is never fun, but I just simply don't believe Reynaldo Lopez can keep up anything close to what he's been doing. There's too big a sample (540 IP) of mediocre performance (~4.9 FIP/xFIP) as a starter for me to buy in without meaningful changes in pitch mix or velocity. Projecting the Mariners to have about a ... Read more

"I bet Phillies -140. Cristopher Sanchez has been pitching like an ace dating back to last season, so I think it's legitimate and the market still isn't giving him enough credit. I have him rated a good amount higher than Griffin Canning, particularly with Canning struggling with his velocity and down about a tick in the early going. The Phils' off... Read more

"I bet Astros -125. I adjusted my numbers upward on Javier Assad but I'm still coming up with value on the Astros here. Despite the horrific start to the season, this is still a much superior offense, especially with Cody Bellinger absent from the Cubs lineup. Justin Verlander still looks like a fine pitcher, he should be better than Assad on paper... Read more

"I bet Orioles -134. Dean Kremer has had a bit of a rocky start, but his underlying numbers look fine. He's just not stranding any baserunners. I have him rated a whole lot higher than Alec Marsh, who has been bad in the majors and mostly terrible in the minors. The Os have the much better offense and should have a bullpen advantage too, so I'm a l... Read more

"I bet Cubs +110. I have Kyle Hendricks rated about half a run better than Tommy Henry, and the two offenses profile similarly, although the Cubs did just lose Seiya Suzuki to injury. I had them slightly favored here and the market has come with me, but I still think the +105 consensus number is OK for a play."

"I bet Rangers +118. A couple of soft-tossing righties face off here but I have much more confidence in Dane Dunning than JP France, who was quite fortunate not to have an ERA near 5 last season. Dunning has a longer track record of firing league-average innings and has come out missing some bats with his secondaries this year. I think he's better,... Read more

"I bet Astros -125. Cristian Javier might be back. He's spinning the heater like he did prior to last season, when his performance took a huge downturn. Even more intriguing, he's throwing a ton of changeups (about 30%) and nobody is touching them through two starts. Ragans starts for the Royals and he's great, but the Astros have been demolishing ... Read more

"I bet Brewers -104. Aaron Ashby is trying to work his back to the majors after a serious injury, and I think this is a decent spot for him. With Matt McClain hurt and Elly De La Cruz terrible from the right side, I don't think the Reds profile as a very strong offense against lefties. And Graham Ashcraft is near the bottom tier of regular MLB star... Read more

"I bet Red Sox -102. Griffin Canning had a bit of a rough go in his first start. I don't want to overreact to a game against a tough Orioles lineup, but Canning's velocity was down 1.3 mph from last year. Given his past inconsistency, I'm a little worried about him. And I was impressed with Kutter Crawford, who got a ton of whiffs last season. He d... Read more

"I bet Red Sox -146. The market simply has not caught up to the fact that Nick Pivetta has become a great starter by adding a sweeper. Well, I should say the oddsmakers have not caught up because Pivetta has been hammered by the sharps each of his first two starts. Unfortunately, I think they've bet this one out of the value territory. "

"I bet Mets -125. I think this game is going to involve a lot of bullpen work from the Tigers. Casey Mize was a prized prospect who has barely pitched since 2021. I think the Tigers will be quite cautious with him, so I like the Mets' chances against a middle relief corps for multiple innings while throwing a decent starter of their own in Adrian H... Read more

"The Red Sox get to face Joe Boyle, and I'm not sure he's a big-league pitcher yet. He had 20-grade control as a prospect and has eye-popping walk numbers at basically every MiLB stop. I rarely care about ST stats but he walked more than 7 per 9 across 18 IP this year. With a poor pen backing him, I'm not seeing many paths to success against a dece... Read more

"I bet Twins -120. Surprised to be fading my guy Ragans, but I think he's being a bit overrated at this point. He's a very good pitcher but is he a great pitcher? The projections aren't bought in, and while I'm higher than them on him, it's also a great matchup for Pablo Lopez. His new sweeper-heavy style works best against a lineup without a lot o... Read more

"See Guardians preview article for full details/reasoning."