"It's hard to back either team. The Bucs are coming off a miserable loss to the Saints, and their offense is in a slump. More specifically, Baker Mayfield is in a slump. His rating the last four games is 65.2. On the other side, the Falcons have lost seven of eight, and the last two games were a loss to the lowly Jets and a 28-point defeat to the S... Read more

"If the Lions were reasonably healthy, maybe they would be the pick. They're not. Receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is likely out (though he is listed as questionable, but it's hard to believe he'd be anywhere close to 100% if he plays), which hurts Detroit's passing game. Tight end Sam LaPorta is out too. Cornerback Terrion Arnold went to injured reserve... Read more

"If the Bears are worthy of their 8-3 record, then they should cover this spread easily. It's OK to be cautious, considering the Bears have very few decent wins and a -3 point differential. The Eagles will be angry after a bad loss, though it's worth wondering if their offense is capable of taking out their frustration on anyone."

"The Texans will be without C.J. Stroud again, and they didn't look great with Davis Mills at the Titans last week, but the defense is fantastic. It leads the NFL in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play. The Bills' defense is 19th in that metric. Josh Allen his coming off a phenomenal game and he's always capable of carrying the Bills to an... Read more

"Did you know the Jets have covered the spread in four of their last five games? Also, do the Jets actually get better on offense with Tyrod Taylor taking over for Justin Fields? Fields' struggles had grown to an uncomfortable level. Taylor can't be worse. It's possible the Ravens blast an undermanned Jets team, but it's another ugly double-digit u... Read more

"Another great matchup. And it might be the Lions' last call to make a charge for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Eagles are very good but it's hard to deny the offense still hasn't taken off. They're 7-2 regardless. We overreact to everything negative surrounding the Eagles, but this still might be the best team in football and it's hard to go agai... Read more

"There are some great matchups in Week 11. This is not one of them. It's not fun, but it's a lot of points. The quicker we get through this Thursday night game, the better."

"Since beating the Patriots in Week 1, the Raiders have lost their three road games by 17, 34 and 31 points. It's tough to take a big favorite on a Thursday night, but the Raiders aren't an underdog that is worth backing most weeks."

"It's possible that the Ravens are energized by getting Lamar Jackson back and pound a Dolphins team that is still bad, regardless of last week's blowout win over the Falcons. But we've been reminded this season that weird things happen on Thursday night."

"The Panthers were terrible last week, but 13.5 points is a lot in the NFL. Also, the Packers have spent much of the season letting inferior opponents hang around. Maybe the second half domination of the Steelers last week indicates the Packers are ready to steamrolling teams. Let's see it first."

"Both teams came into the season with high hopes after making the playoffs last season, and neither has taken off. The Vikings are .500 and the Chargers have fallen to 4-3 after a promising 3-0 start. It's an intriguing matchup, and getting more than a field goal makes for a tepid pick."

"The Bengals haven't lost by fewer than nine points since Joe Burrow went on injured reserve. They're being outscored by 21.3 points per game over the last four. So why is this spread just 5.5 points? As we found out each of the last two Thursdays, a divisional matchup in prime time can bring the best out of a team that isn't very good or is facing... Read more

"It's possible that the Eagles, finally made uncomfortable by losing one of those games in which they disappear for a quarter or two, are angry and take it out on the Giants. But it's a prime-time game between division rivals, and the Giants will be up for it. And as we started to see last week, no big NFL favorite is a sure thing."

"The line started at Rams -3.5 and has continued to grow due to all those 49ers injuries. Brock Purdy will not play. Neither will Jauan Jennings or Ricky Pearsall, who are also ruled out. Still, the 49ers are a well-coached team that still has talent, even with key players out. The Rams are very good but it's a short week for them too, and the 49er... Read more

"The Seahawks went from a small underdog to start the week to a small favorite, and I agree with that move. It's way too early for any stats to normalize, but the fact that the Seahawks are No. 1 in the NFL in DVOA speaks to how good they have looked, especially on defense. The Cardinals beat the Saints and Panthers, but were out-gained by both of ... Read more

"What a matchup for Monday night The Lions showed last week theyre just fine when theyre not facing the Packers defense The Ravens have scored 40 points in back to back games This is going to be a fun one I hate going against Lamar Jackson especially in prime time but the line is a little high for a quality opponent And with the Lions offense the b... Read more

"The Philadelphia Eagles didn't just win Super Bowl LIX. They left absolutely no doubt. The Super Bowl LIX final score, with the Philadelphia Eagles winning 40-22, was misleading. It was much worse than that. The Eagles led 40-6 before the Chiefs made the score look a little better with two meaningless touchdowns in the final three minutes. It was ... Read more

"Are the Raiders good? They're certainly improved. Geno Smith is a big upgrade over what they had at quarterback. The Chargers had a long trip to Brazil and got a big win over the Chiefs, then go right back on the road for what should be a rowdy atmosphere on Monday night. If the Chargers win and cover, it will be impressive."

"This is the type of Cowboys team that can make a deep run, too. They were 8-0 at home. They scored an NFL-best 509 points. Dallas has a playmaking defense that was top five in points allowed and yards allowed. The Cowboys turned into a mediocre team on the road, but we don't have to worry about that for a couple weeks. Every game in the playoffs i... Read more

"That leads into the Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers game. The Packers are playing for everything. If they win they get a playoff spot. The Bears have already been eliminated. But Chicago is playing very well lately, they want to kick their rivals out of the playoff bracket and they want to go into the offseason feeling good. I'm picking the Bears ... Read more

"I don't think the Bills came all this way just to lose to the Dolphins with a division title on the line. The Dolphins have a lot of injuries and despite the win over the Cowboys, I still have questions about them vs. top competition."

"Well, the Packers don't have to worry about Jaire Alexander hopping out to call the coin toss. They do have to worry about covering Justin Jefferson without their top cornerback. The Packers aren't very good. They needed all 60 minutes to beat the Panthers. Now they're going on the road and covering a small spread at Minnesota? Nah."

"After two awful matchups on Monday, we get one of the games of the year to end it. The 49ers are very good. They also are a virtual lock to get the No. 1 seed (95.6% percent chance via DVOA) and maybe it will be hard to stay sharp the last few weeks of the season. I also have a lot of respect for the Ravens, who might not be getting enough respect... Read more

"How good are the Eagles? I think it's fair to answer that we don't know. I'd really like a desperate Seahawks team if we knew Geno Smith was playing and somewhat healthy after missing last week with a groin injury. But we don't know that as of yet, and it's scary to take Drew Lock in this spot. But he did play well and the Seahawks can keep it clo... Read more

"This game epitomizes the 2023 NFL season. This matchup was supposed to be great. Now it's not even good because of a quarterback injury. I don't think Jake Browning was horrible in his first start replacing Joe Burrow. But everyone knows their season is going south fast. I still think they can be competitive in spurts, and will battle on Monday ni... Read more

"Just think, this is the "good" matchup for Monday night. Ugh. I have enjoyed the Packers' resurgence, but they're coming off a massive win over the Chiefs. And if anything is going to get the Giants motivated, it might be a Monday night game. The Giants have played better lately. As good as the Packers have been, I could see them being upset in a ... Read more

"I'd like to take a good home underdog getting a touchdown. However, I keep thinking back to last season's meetings between these teams. Seattle lost by 20, 8 and 18 to the 49ers and in that 21-13 loss, the Seahawks trailed 21-3 and were never in the game. Now Seattle comes in with top running back Kenneth Walker III likely out and Geno Smith's rig... Read more

"I'll have more to say about this game in The Daily Sweat on Monday. But what a game. Finally, some fun prime-time matchups."

"Maybe the Broncos are actually going to be decent the rest of the way? They've played much better the past three weeks and are coming off a win over the Chiefs. The Bills just look mediocre. Maybe they're much better than mediocre and we'll see that, but I'm not laying more than a touchdown with them."

"I think I've picked the Jets every week. Why stop now? This Jets game will be like every other, praying the offense makes one or two plays to help out the defense. It's not a fun experience, but they are 4-2-1 against the spread this season."

"The NFL gave us three awful prime-time matchups this week. All three games have a spread of 8.5 points. Detroit looked terrible last week but it happens. The Raiders are way, way worse than the Ravens, last week's Lions opponent, and this looks like a get-right game for Detroit."

"The Vikings won their first game without Justin Jefferson but it was not pretty. Kirk Cousins had 181 yards on 31 attempts against a bad Bears defense. The 49ers come in angry after losing to the Browns. I don't like taking big road favorites in prime-time spots, but this is a bad spot for the Vikings."

"I don't think you can assign the Chargers any home-field advantage in this game. In fact, maybe the Cowboys deserve a half-point. More on this game Monday."

"Week 1 threw us off. We thought the Raiders might be OK and the Broncos would be bad. Well, it turns out the Raiders are really bad and the Broncos are somehow worse. The Packers are coming off a horrid outing against the Lions, but Detroit is miles better than Las Vegas (in terms of their football teams at least)."

"Week 1 threw us off. We thought the Raiders might be OK and the Broncos would be bad. Well, it turns out the Raiders are really bad and the Broncos are somehow worse. The Packers are coming off a horrid outing against the Lions, but Detroit is miles better than Las Vegas (in terms of their football teams at least)."

"I'll talk more about this in The Daily Sweat on Monday morning so I'll keep it short here: The Giants might be pretty bad."

"This pick took a lot longer than it would have two weeks ago. I am not comfortable taking the Bengals with Joe Burrow limping around and the offense looking broken. They have no downfield passing game, which is shocking. It doesn't even resemble the Bengals offenses of the past two seasons. Still, is Cincinnati falling to 0-3 with a home loss to t... Read more

"Neither team looked good in the opener. The Commanders struggled against a bad Cardinals team at home and the Broncos lost to a Raiders team that probably isn't good either. I don't trust either team so I'll take the points."

"This is a perplexing game. I like the Bills to win the Super Bowl. They were a lot better last season than most people remember. But the Jets should be really good too and they'll be fired up for the first game of the Aaron Rodgers era, especially on Monday night against a team that has taken over the AFC East. This is a fantastic game, maybe the ... Read more