"I grabbed u46.5 (-110) earlier in the week but would play it down to -115."

"Buy-low, sell-high spot. More in my MNF betting guide below."

"It's gross, but I'm buying low on the Titans at the bottom barrel of their market value. More in my NFL Week 12 betting guide."

"More info in my NFL Week 11 betting guide (see below)."

"Expect a slower-paced NFC East brawl. More details in my NFL Week 11 betting guide."

"After firing Dennis Allen, expect the Saints to respond in a revenge game against the division-rival Falcons."

"It's gross, but this line rising beyond the key number of a field goal from the look-ahead line was the trigger. More in my Week 9 betting guide."

"I'm selling high on the Packers against a much healthier Jags defense than what we've seen lately."

"Even against the Raiders, the Rams' defense clearly improved following the bye week. I also expect more regression from the Vikings' defense against a more potent receiving core than what Matt Stafford has had at his disposal over the last handful of weeks. Look for Sean McVay to attempt to mimic the Lions' protection schemes from last week."

"Revenge game for the 49ers against a Chiefs team that's overvalued in the market."

"Don't play this one past 41, a key number for NFL totals. Outside of Week 6, Joe Burrow has been one of the league's best quarterbacks, but this is arguably his toughest test yet in a difficult divisional matchup."

"I have the Jaguars power-rated a tad higher than the Bears, and they should have tight end Evan Engram returning to the lineup."

"Selling high on both offenses with an inflated total. More in my NFL Week 6 betting guide."

"Buying low on the Saints with this spread shifting six total points from the look-ahead line. More in my NFL Week 6 betting guide."

"Plus matchups for the Rams on both sides of the ball. More in my NFL Week 5 betting guide."

"Selling the Cowboys off a win, with their two best defensive players out. More in my NFL Week 5 betting guide at TheLines.com."

"Selling high on the Bills in an ideal matchup for the Ravens on both sides of the ball. More in my betting column below."

"I grabbed the Jags before the market bet this down below the key number of a touchdown. Monitor the market to see if they get bet back up over the course of the week."

"Buy-low opportunity with the Jags, especially given Buffalo's defensive injuries."

"Even against Skylar Thompson, Seattle's power-rating is a bit overvalued after facing the Broncos and Patriots. More in my betting guide below."

"Adding onto my Cardinals position from Week 3, it's a good time to buy ahead of a pivotal matchup against the Lions."

"Cardinals were around +4 on the look-ahead line, but the spread is still at a key number. After digging in more to the Lions' loss to the Bucs, Jared Goff's struggles against zone defenses continued, which the Cardinals present to a degree. More in NFL Week 3 betting guide."

"Although I bet on the Packers and Malik Willis as a home underdog in Week 2, their service academy offense won't have as much success against a more formidable defensive front. More in my NFL Week 3 betting guide in the coming days."

"Expecting improved play-calling from Falcons OC Zac Robinson. Atlanta should have success through the air against an Eagles secondary that's still adjusting under Vic Fangio, assuming Kirk Cousins looks more comfortable off the torn achilles. AJ Brown's also absence looms large against a secondary without much CB depth."

"Despite Cleveland's offensive concerns in Week 1, I thought this line was adjusted to much above the key number of a field goal. Even with some Browns money bringing it down to +3, the Jags will be without their lone reliable corner, Tyson Campbell (IR)."

"We're starting our NFL Week 2 overreactions with this bet. Even without Jordan Love, this adjustment from the look-ahead line (GB -4.5) is too much. More in my betting guide."

"Expecting a slower start for the Bills' offense with many new faces at WR. Their defense should also suffered a huge loss with LB Matt Milano on IR. Conversely, I have the Cardinals' offense power-rated near the top 10, especially with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr."

"I was hoping this line would inch closer to +3 (-110), but I'll take the points in what should be a close game. Early on, I'm willing to fade the Eagles' restructured offense, especially more of a burden on Jalen Hurts at the LOS without Jason Kelce. If you'd rather stay away since this line drifted further away from a key number, I like Green Bay... Read more

"My NFL power ratings are on par with the betting market for the Bears, meaning the expectations surrounding Caleb Williams are mostly warranted. However, I'm higher on the Commanders than the market, especially regarding Daniels' duel-threat upside."

"In Tampa Bay's final seven games of last season, it accrued a worse offensive EPA and success rate than the opposition. The Bucs also ranked ninth in fumble luck, recovering fumbles at higher rates than the league average on both sides of the ball. Combine those variables with key losses on the coaching staff and within their defensive personnel (... Read more

"I'm higher on Washington than the market and the opposite for the Bucs. This is a valuable wager above the key number of a field goal, especially considering my expectations for rookie QB Jayden Daniels. More to come in my NFL Week 1 best bets column at TheLines.com."

"I'm willing to take a longshot for a half-unit bet in arguably the most wide-open division across the NFL. The Saints' upside stems from their first-year OC Klint Kubiak, who will bring over the Kyle Shanahan offense from San Francisco. Combine that with a top-10 defense and one of the league's easiest schedules, and there's some value for a team ... Read more

"I grabbed this above the key number of 43, and I'd play it down to under 41.5 (-110). Both defensive fronts should have success, especially with Cleveland's offensive line in flux. I'm a bit more skeptical of playing totals earlier in the season because of the new kickoff rules, but I was willing to play it for a full unit because of the noted adv... Read more

"The Bengals have arguably the easiest SOS. They can unseat the Ravens in the AFC North standings with a seemingly healthy Joe Burrow and a revamped secondary. Read more in my betting guide at TheLines.com."

"It appears increasingly likely that Murphy will be the first defensive player off the board, with the Falcons and Bears set up to take him as a top-10 selection."

"I bet Ravens -3 (-115), but I’d play it up to -120. More on Monday’s podcast (link below)."

"Small play, on top of Bucs +6/6.5."

"Insight on this week's Beat The Closing Number podcast (link below)."

"Insight on this week's Beat The Closing Number podcast (link below)."

"As much as the Dolphins' defensive injuries concern me, their ground game should have plenty of success in poor conditions and take pressure off Tua. More on Thursday's podcast (link below)."

"My model makes this spread roughly Cowboys -5.5. Since Week 9, Jordan Love has been borderline elite and right there with Dak Prescott. More on our NFL wild-card betting podcast (link below)."

"Adding onto Saints exposure. Breakdown on the podcast (below)."

"Like Bucs-Saints, here's another sell-high spot — this time with the Bears. More on Thursday's podcast (link below)."

"Selling high on Bucs in a must-win spot for the Saints. More on our podcast later this week (link below)."

"Selling the Rams at their peak market rating. More on Thursday's edition of TheLines' podcast."

"Banged-up Colts offense against a Falcons team getting healthier on both sides of the ball — with a theoretical upgrade at quarterback. More in my NFL Week 16 betting guide."

"Detroit looked great against a Broncos defense due to regress. That's great, but the Vikings are much more stout against the run. They also have the league's highest blitz rate — one of Jared Goff's biggest issues. With Minnesota fighting for a playoff spot, expect Nick Mullens to do just enough to keep the Vikings in yet another close game -- at ... Read more

"Browns throwing more in neutral situations with Flacco, which theoretically takes away from the Bears' biggest defensive strength. But Chicago's also let up the fifth-fewest EPA per dropback allowed since Week 9. Conversely, Cleveland's banged-up defense has been most vulnerable on the ground of late, which plays into the Bears' ability to dictate... Read more

"Both teams are banged up. Despite their injuries, I have the Falcons power-rated better than a pick'em against the Bucs on a neutral field. Tampa Bay's offense has been extremely fortunate regarding fumble luck. Meanwhile, its defense has benefited from red-zone variance despite allowing the fourth-highest success rate since Week 8."

"Not getting the best of the number here (opened Detroit -4.5/5), but it's still above the key number of a field goal. Lions now rank No. 30 in dropback success rate allowed. Not only was Justin Fields efficient against them in Week 11, but the Bears' defense also quietly ranks above league-average across the board, since Week 9. "

"Too drastic of a shift from the look-ahead line (Bengals -6) despite Joe Burrow's season-ending injury. The market continues to overvalue the Steelers after the luckiest start through the first nine games in NFL history."

"Sell-high spot on Detroit and a below-average pass defense. With Justin Fields (thumb) likely back, he increases the Bears' offensive variance."

"I'll have a more expansive breakdown in my NFL 11 column, but Seattle continues to be overvalued in the betting market — on top of the fact that this game represents a look-ahead spot with the 49ers on deck on Thanksgiving."

"Bills rank bottom four in EPA/play and success rate since Week 5, and Josh Allen is currently dealing with a shoulder injury, affecting his deep ball. Despite that, the market is still overvaluing Buffalo, especially considering the secondary injuries. Combine that with a healthier Broncos defense that has performed well of late, and they should s... Read more