"Their defense is playing very well, while the 49ers' defense has declined in recent weeks. Both running backs should have nice games, but only the Chiefs have Mahomes."

"That's a very low total, and the Titans' defense hasn't been particularly strong this year. Even the Pittsburgh defense is "only" ninth in DVOA. The Steelers have been a very fast-paced offense as well, although the Titans offense is always slow. I think the spread is fairly accurate but I like the idea of going with OVER 36.5 in this game."

"I suppose divisional games tend to be a little closer and slightly lower-scoring than other games, but I am still surprised that the line in Broncos-Chiefs has moved toward the Broncos during the week. The Chiefs are in the top five of DVOA for all three phases of the game, while the Broncos are still the second-worst defense ever tracked through ... Read more